Tuesday, October 19, 2004

The perfidy of the USGS, the EIA, and the IEA

USGS = the United States Geological Survey.
EIA = the Energy Information Administration of the United States Department of Energy.
IEA = the International Energy Agency, an intergovernmental body of the European Community.

Definition from The Free Dictionary: PERFIDY, The act of one who has engaged his faith to do a thing, and does not do it, but does the contrary.

These organizations have a statutory duty to their respective governments and publics to provide accurate and timely data about oil and gas resources and production, including scientifically sound assessments of future discovery, reserves, and production. They have failed spectacularly and incomprehensibly in the past. Several commentators have suggested that the elementary nature of their blunders, and the opacity with which they deliver their conclusions, indicate that their failures are willful, and represent either the pursuit of unstated goals of their political masters, or a craven conformance to their masters' expectations.


W. Zittel, J. Schindler, L-B-Systemtechnik, "The Countdown for the Peak of Oil Production has Begun - but what are the Views of the Most Important International Energy Agencies", 12 October 2004.

Jean H. Laherrère, "Is USGS 2000 Assessment Reliable?", May 2, 2000.

Glenn Morton, "USGS Estimate of Oil Supply", Post to the American
Scientific Affiliation (ASA) list, September 27, 2001. Morton is a
geologist with Kerr-McGee in Scotland.

Colin J. Campbell, "Explaining the Failure of the U.S. Geological
Survey", ASPO-ODAC Newsletter #16 (April 2002), item 44, pp. 5-6.

Jean H. Laherrère, "Do the Last 6 Years of Production Confirm the
USGS Forecast for the Period 1996-2025?", August 2002.

Colin J. Campbell. "A Reply by C.J. Campbell to 'Global Petroleum
Reserves - A View to the Future', by Thomas S. Ahlbrandt and J.
McCabe, United States Geological Survey, Published in Geotimes,
November 2002", ASPO Newsletter #24 (December 2002), item 122, pp. 10-11,
"The USGS seeks to perpetuate its error".

Here are references for the spectacular failure of the USGS to
acknowledge the 1970 US peak of oil production until after it had
occurred, although it had been accurately predicted by
M. King Hubbert in 1956. Thanks to Chris Kuykendall.

Robert Gillette. "Oil and Gas Resources: Did USGS Gush Too High?"
Science 185 (July 12, 1974), pp. 127-130. [PCL = Q 1 S35]

Robert Gillette. "Academy Calls USGS Math Misleading",
Science 187 (February 28, 1975), pp. 723-___. [PCL = Q 1 S35]

Arthur J. Magida. "USGS Plays a 'Numbers Game' on Remaining Oil,
Gas Resources." National Journal 7 (September 27, 1975),
pp. 1349-1356. [PUBLIC AFFAIRS = JK 1 N28]

M. King Hubbert. "Energy Resources: A Scientific and Cultural
Dilemma." Bulletin of the Association of Engineering Geologists 13
(Spring 1976), pp. 81-124. [GEOLOGY = TA 705 A82A]